Trustless P2P Prediction Markets

Previously, I made this post about my Truthcoin project, but it was immediately buried via the MtGox-Apocalypse.

Since that post, I've continued to make a lot of progress, and now consider the design (and the proof-of-concept code for all completely novel elements) to be finished, and await new comments/questions, and/or a development-initiative.

Summary:

USD-based PMs are subject to censorship/removal, and current BTC solutions require trusting a third-party with funds. All existing solutions require the operator to provide the markets you are interested in and correctly arbitrate those markets. This project aims to eliminate all of these problems.

As before, PMs allow you to do a number of remarkable things (are you tired of hearing that Bitcoin "has no intrinsic value?"):

1. Use the combined knowledge and intellectual ability of mankind to construct and refine the most accurate possible prediction of the future.


2. End debates about the contentious issues of today, such as climate-change, heritability of IQ, effect of GMOs etc.


3. Prevent anyone (even politicians, industry leaders) from lying about a target claim.


4. Encourage and compensate whistleblowers.


5. Provide ‘market advice’ on the relative impact of decisions on outcomes (“If we adopt X Fed policy, what effect on inflation can we expect?”).


6. Provide insurance (buying and selling) opportunities for catastrophic global disasters, earthquakes, hurricane, etc.


7. Allow tradable binary financial derivatives, for example on the BTC exchange rate, or the solvency of exchanges, or to create replicating portfolios of 'real-world' assets (gold, DJIA, BTC).


8. Recreational gambling in real time, always at actuarially fair odds and low fees.


9. Allows for the creation of ‘Trustless Dominant Assurance Contracts’ which allow financing of public goods such as lighthouse, roads, etc. with no counterparty risk.

For more details on these applications, see this applications paper.

Whitepaper v1.1

Other great PM-papers by yours truly.

BitcoinTalk Post

submitted by TruthcoinPMs

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