Besides the sun goes up every day, there are few predictable patterns in life. There are systems that follow precise power laws that have to do with the nature of the phenomenon. Bitcoin is such a phenomenon. That is what is not understood. Regulations, pump and dumps, news are almost non a factor. They can momentarily jump the price up and down but BTC then goes back to its trend line or oscillates around it. In average we have been 14 % away from this trend line in both directions with occasional 70 or 80 percent discrepancies (rare events). But even factors of 2 are meaningless when you talk about exponential growth.
The exponential growth is driven by one factor only, not millions. The rate of adoption. Period. In fact there is a strong correlation (R2 = 0.82) between number of users and price. All these things are not understood by too many people, unfortunately. Also the price doesn't grow linearly with the number of users but instead with the power of 1.4 of the number of users. That is nice because for the price to increase 1000 times you need only 140 times the number of users of today. We have about 2 million BTC users.
So 300 million people using BTC is very reasonable. That would bring the price up to 1 million dollars. These are not numbers I made up but I have spent hours studying the data and I have extracted the information from 3.5 years of BTC history. There is no reason why this predictable growth, that has been very smooth and not affected by news or other irrelevant factors, would not continue until saturation that is very far from now.
Look up Geoffrey West, a physicist that has worked on growth patterns of organisms, cities and corporations to understand what I'm talking about: http://ift.tt/nt8jlq
Here a comparison between Metcalfe's, Zipf's and Bitcoin's law.
And a graph of the relationship between transaction per day (excluding popular addresses) and price. http://ift.tt/1h7vQj0
submitted by gsantostasi
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from Bitcoin http://ift.tt/1mhTSx1
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